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What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots
OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar. Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone. It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c. As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon. TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome. DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
Stop spending my tax money on troops. the last time that ANY use of US military was justified was pearl harbor. Americans do not need bases overseas. We did not need to "beat the communists." We certainly do not need to be out there in the middle east "nation building". Those are american lives being lost for nothing but pointless political scores.
Start spending my money on developing american energy independence. If all american cars were electric, we wouldn't be dependent on saudi oil. We would never had to interfere with saddam hussein. Kuwait would have never been invaded because the oil wouldn't be worth money. 9/11 would have never happened because bin ladin would have never been radicalized because of the gulf war. We wouldn't need to prop israel up, because nothing in the region would have any utility. Energy independence would have altered all of this. Forget about the environment if you want. Energy independence is the right call, purely from a geopolitical standpoint.
For fucks sake, stop taxing cryptocurrency to cryptocurrency trade transactions. Nobody can keep that shit straight. I traded eth ->zrx -> btc ->usdc and then I sold a bunch of puts that paid... in oEth. Which doesn't even have value until redeemed from the smart contract. The fuck am I supposed to put on my tax returns? oeth? It's a logic block until redeemed, and until then its a floating variable that moves all over the place in value.
Get the voting system fixed. This shit of pitting people against each other using both gerrymandering and winner take it all voting instead of ranked choice voting is wrong. It allows insiders to manipulate the elections, and it creates absolute insanity. The current system is how we got donald trump vs hillary. Neither side could vote for third party, despite many wanting to. What will it take to get us there? Armed revolution and general insurrection? Dead bodies in the streets? Protesters setting themselves on fire? What? The founding fathers warned about factions. You are the embodiment of hamilton's worst nightmares.
Stop printing money. Move back to a semblance of sound money. People do not want to go into debt to buy stuff. Debt is toxic. It is a system that enslaves people, makes them default, and throughout the entire process of defaulting, their stress goes up, and they have health problems because of it. People should not be forward loading their debt into the future as the optimal strategy. Right now, your system of money printing makes debt more appetizing. And that is wrong. There is a reason we buy bitcoin. We fucking hate you and your system. The money printing is theft from the people, and the fed needs to be held to account for the theft of trillions of dollars from the american people.
Stop it with the surveillance network. STOP IT. The price of a surveillance state is too high a price for freedom. I would rather be unsafe and free, rather than be safe but stuck in a prison. And the to the CIA... You are a bunch of goatfuckers that ALL deserve to be strung up in nooses for crimes against humanity. You led the overthrow of pretty much every south american countries democratically elected government at one time or another in the last 100 years. And you are responsible for hoarding and deploying vulnerabilities instead of working with american software manufacturers to get them patched. You are a rogue organization, and every single one of you deserves a full military court martial for crimes against the people of the united states, and against the world. You have destabilized our diplomacy, and tarnished our reputation.
Legalize ALL drugs. Half of the problems in law enforcement go back to our prohibition against drugs. Let people use them in the safety of their own homes. Regulate them. Provide users with clean safe ways of using. Educate people. Provide quitting services for people who want to quit. But at the end of the day, our minds are our minds, and you the state have no business trying to regulate peoples state of consciousness. Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness includes chemically induced happiness.
$1k invested in Top 10 Cryptos on Jan. 1, 2020 now worth $1,264 (UP +26%)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month Six - UP +26% See the full blog post with all the tableshere. Not sure what this is all about? Here is the history and ground rules of these experiments. tl;dr - This snapshot was taken on July 1st, 2020. By the slimmest of margins, the 2020 Top Ten is still the best performing of the three experiments. In June: Tether holds its ground, as a stablecoin should, all others finish the month in negative territory. BSV loses nearly a quarter of its value in June and is worst performing for the second straight month. Overall, since January 2020, it is Tezos in lead (+88%) followed by second place ETH (+79%). The 2020 Top 10 is up +26% compared to the -4% loss of the S&P 500 since 01.01.2020.
Month Six – UP 26%
Lots of red this month While technically still the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments for the fifth straight month, this month the 2020 Top Ten cut it close. Very close. How close? The 2020 Top Ten is up +26.6% compared to the 2019 Top Ten’s +25.9%. Watch your back, 2020 Top Ten.
Question of the month:
Which country trialed Bitcoin payments for passports in June?
A) Costa Rica B) Venezuela C) Mongolia D) Eritrea Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and June Winners and Losers
Movement in rank After a very strange zero movement May, we saw some ups and down with the 2020 Top Ten in June. Okay, mostly downs: XRP fell one, dropping it’s long-held #3 slot. Both EOS and Tezos struggled in June: both lost two places in the rankings and both dropped out of the Top Ten. Tether is the only crypto to make a positive move in June, never a good sign. June Winners – Just Tether. The rest of the field struggled in June. ETH finished in second place, ending the month down -7%. June Losers – BSV under-performed its peers for the second straight month, losing almost a quarter of its value (-23%) in June. Tezos also struggled, down -18% since the beginning of June. For those keeping score, I also keep a tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses. Tether and Tezos have won two months each. BSV has finished in last place three out of the first six months of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.
Overall update – Tezos in lead, ETH takes second place from BSV, and 80% of Top Ten are in positive territory.
Despite a bad month, Tezos (+88% since January 2020) maintained its lead. Ethereum (+79%) isn’t far behind in second place and has overtaken third place BSV (+59%). Not counting Tether, the worst performing crypto is XRP, down -7% on the year.
Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market lost over $20B in June but is still up +38% since the beginning this year’s experiment in January 2020.
Bitcoin dominance fell a tiny bit, but hasn’t really made a significant move all year.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:
After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,264, up +26.4%. It is the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio, but just barely: the 2019 group came in at +25.9% in June. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along: All green first half of 2020 Besides the zombie apocalypse blip in March, so far so good: all green is good to see and a nice change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between +7% and +55%. So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $2,710. That’s down about -10% for the three combined portfolios. That’s compared to about +4% last month. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a new table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Even with COVID and protests in the US, stocks continued to tick up. The S&P is now down just -4% since the beginning of the year. Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +26%. The initial $1k investment now worth about $1,264. The money I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $960 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. That’s a $304 difference on a $1k investment. Not bad, but not as impressive as last month’s $517 swing. And what if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? You know, the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging/$1k on January 1st approach? Here are the figures:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$170
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$240
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$40
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,370. That $3,370 is up over+12%since January 2018, compared to the $2,710 value (-10%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. Here’s another new table to help visualize the difference in ROI of the combined crypto portfolios vs. a hypothetical identical approach with the S&P 500: The new table makes it easy to see that crypto and the markets went in opposite directions in June. This has produced the largest difference in favor of the S&P since the beginning of 2020: a 22% gap. Compare that February, when there was only a 1% difference in ROI.
The crypto market as a whole is up +38% since the beginning of the year compared to the 2020 Top Ten cryptos which have gained +26%. For the second month in a row, and the only two times since the Top Ten 2020 began, the cryptos in this group have under-performed the overall market. Up until the last two months, focusing on the 2020 Top Ten has been a solid approach, but it has not worked so well in the other experiment years. Although there are a few examples of the Top Ten strategy outperforming the overall market in the 2019 Top Ten Experiment, it’s interesting to note at no point in the first thirty months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. Not even once.
The world continues to struggle with a global pandemic and traditional markets have nearly bounced back. Although up since the beginning of the year, Crypto did not keep pace with US stocks in June. Will crypto reassert itself in the second half of the year? Final word: Please take care of yourselves and your neighbors. FYI – everyone is your neighbor. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
And the Answer is…
B) Venezuela According to multiple sources, a Bitcoin payment option was available when paying online for passport services in Venezuela. It didn’t last long though: just hours later, the option disappeared, according to user reports.
If anything I hope the staff sees this and reads this. First a change to punishment protocol. Confirmed seller: Ban Confirmed buyer: 3 day suspension, account wipe, next time ban. (Edit: it has been pointed out that wiping would permanently punish someone who was hit under a false positive and therefore struck) Might be a hot take, but why not suspend? Allow people to learn from their mistakes. RMT is a bad thing to do, but is not on par with hacking, even if it enables hackers. RMT is normalized throughout online games and therefore is a problem in the gaming culture/community and can be changed. However, no company has been successful in removing RMT with these methods. So this is what I suggest.
Restrict the players ability to bring in items that are not medical, food, combat or gear related. There is no reason to bring in a GP coin or Bitcoin that I am aware of and they have stated that they don't want you to bring your friends items. This would fix both problems. You could make an exception if the item is quest related. RMT sellers would have to find other items to drop, which may include guns and expensive pieces of gear but with that will come the risk of having to extract successfully with it, greatly increase the time it would take to deliver an item and greatly increase the price of virtual roubles to real US dollars. You would still be able to do a raid with your friend and exchange gear you found inside of that raid or on enemy players.
Change the way the flea market works. Generally I am for a free market, but because of the rampant abuse of RMT sellers and buyers, this can no longer be the case. Every item has a set sell value and if sold by a vendor an inherent buy value. You could use the percentage of the depreciation of an item when you sell it vs when it is bought to find the value of all items IF they were sold by the vendor. You could take this value and allow it to be sold on the flea market for no more than 200% or 250% of that value. You can also make it so the barter value can also no exceed that percentage total as well. Nikita has said that he does not like the inflation of items and this would solve a lot of RMT issues, his issues with the market as well as price gouging. It would also slow down progression. If BSG is unhappy with the value of an item, they only need to tweak the sell value and it would scale with the set percentage for depreciation.
It is clear from the podcasts that Nikita has been on that they are devoting a lot of time to combat this issue. They could shut down the flea market for a week in order to put this system into place and work on the changing in raid issues as well and the game would be better for it. The supply and demand for these services will always be there and reluctantly I would say there is no alternative solution. Getting into a banning tug of war with buyers and sellers will only end with the draining of BSGs resources, which are precious towards the continuation of development. The only good thing to come out of soft banning accounts is that they purchase new accounts, but how many of those accounts are bought with stolen cards that are charged back. As an American I am well aware of our infatuation with instant gratification and I believe that is also another source that fuels RMT. We want our gear now, we want it easy and we want it fast. Putting these measures in place would force players to play the way the game is intended to be played. The only issue that I think cannot be solve currently is paid Sherpa services that are available online. I would say that the price you would pay to play with someone comes with the risk of losing all of your items to other players. I know people do not like the idea of regulating the in game market as it will take roubles out of the pockets of those who are used to selling high value items legitimately, but it is a necessary evil for the betterment of the game as well as the sustainability and longevity of Tarkov. Thoughts?
Dash competitive basket index for Wednesday, 17 June, 2020. Meh, nothing special for Dash. Alts did all right.
The 7 day data for everybody including Dash is still ugly. The 24 hour data did go down as predicted, but not very much. My wild guess is that it will go down again tomorrow on the 24 hour data to “finish the move.” Dollar value is not too bad. We can still pay our bills.
Dash outperformed 6 of the 21 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (29% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 41%
Dash outperformed 6 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (60% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 32%.
In total, Dash outperformed 12 of the top 31 cryptos (39% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 38%.
Bitcoin dominance dropped a tenth to 64.4%.
5 of the top 31 cryptos beat Bitcoin (16%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 2 of the top 32 cryptos (6%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 26 of the top 32 (81%) cryptos were in the green. That’s the biggest rebound I have recorded.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 12 of the top 31 cryptos (39%).
Dash competitive basket index for Monday, 22 June, 2020. No hopium for Dash today. Alt sector looks pretty happy.
The 7 day CBI data got worse for Dash. The 24 hour data was also nothing special for Dash. The Alt sector as a whole looked pretty happy today. I am less grumpy when the CBI data is mediocre in a rising market. Dollar value still solid.
Dash outperformed 5 of the 21 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (24% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 37%
Dash outperformed 1 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (10% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 30%.
In total, Dash outperformed 6 of the top 31 cryptos (19% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 36%.
Bitcoin dominance dropped 3/10’s to 64.1%.
14 of the top 31 cryptos beat Bitcoin (45%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 31 of the top 32 cryptos (97%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 29 of the top 32 (91%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 11 of the top 31 cryptos (36%).
Dash competitive basket index for Friday, 12 June, 2020. The whole crypto sector had a rough day in response to the Dow Jones Industrial Average sh!tting the bed.
Dash and the whole crypto sector had a bad day. This is almost certainly a reaction to the Dow Jones Industrial Average sh!tting the bed and dropping nearly 2,000 points in the last 24 hours. People got all excited that we were making modest progress against Covid, but then discovered that just throwing money at the economy doesn’t really make it healthy again. And we dropped a rank. It’s not all doom and gloom, our moving average crept up a bit. Dollar value dropped to $73.99, but still high enough to pay our bills. Eventually, people will realize that crypto is not tied to the fiat economy quite so tightly as they imagine. Stated differently, people will realize that the legacy banking industry will be printing money like mad in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Crypto marches to a different drummer. We neither need nor want to inflate our money supply in that manner. Plus, we literally can’t.
Dash outperformed 6 of the 21 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (29% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 40%
Dash outperformed 3 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (30% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 30%.
In total, Dash outperformed 9 of the top 31 cryptos (29% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 37%.
Bitcoin dominance pickled up that 1/10th again to 64.2% It’s been range bound for 2 weeks.
8 of the top 31 cryptos beat Bitcoin (26%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 5 of the top 32 cryptos (16%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, exactly 1 of the top 32 (32%) cryptos were in the green. Tether.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 7 of the top 31 cryptos (23%).
* The 30 day SMA is the Simple Moving Average for the last 30 days. It is represented with the red line. The blue line is the daily Dash performance based on the price change over a one week period compared to the price change of other coins. As always, this is not investment advise. Never trust some random dude on the internet. Do your own due diligence. All crypto is inherently and unavoidably risky. Don’t invest more in crypto than you can afford to lose. ^ Dash vs the top 31 cryptos in the world. We made a higher low. We're ok. Tune in tomorrow. The red line is the percentage of the top 30 Alt Coins that were in the green (price went up) on the 24 hour time frame. The blue line is the percentage of the top 30 Alt Coins that were in the green (price went up) on the 7 day time frame. Yesterday I said, “So tomorrow should be up, and significantly so.” Yeah, not so much. I did not anticipate the DJIA shitting the bed by 2,000 points in the last 24 hours. So now the interesting question is when the 24 hour data will bounce back up. My current guess is that is that it will go up some time in the next 72 hours.
Currently the 500 MCO tier is sort of the sweet spot for most users where a lot of valuable perks kick in. When I first purchased MCO it was under $3 USD, so going straight to the 500 tier was an obvious choice. I was planning to put some Stablecoins and Bitcoin into earn, so the added 2% bonus in-kind in earn, plus the 3% card cashbacks and Netflix reimbursement made the choice economically beneficial quite quickly. Less than a year later the benefits have provided me a larger return on investment than if I had done otherwise. I have been eyeing the upgrade to the 5000 tier, but I wanted to do an analysis of what sort of upgrade strategy makes sense to optimize ROI weighted against risks and if I'm even the right candidate for such an investment. With the price of MCO being higher, it's not such a clear decision. I will outline my thought process below. Assumptions - These are the assumptions that I am working with for my analysis. Working with a different set of assumptions will affect the decision making process differently for different people.
Decision making process involves only MCO, Stablecoins (Fiat), and Bitcoin
Bitcoin being held was bought at a low price and converting to MCO will cause a taxable event
There is no monetary benefit to Prime because I've been grandfathered into prime from an old family members account
There is no monetary benefit to Expedia because I do all my travel spending on my Chase Sapphire Reserve that offers robust travel benefits and protections.
The monetary benefit to CDC Private is not clear at the time
Time frame of one year
Interest rates on the platform do not drastically change over the next year
MCO and BTC change fluctuate roughly in lockstep
Dollar figures below are arbitrary for example purposes only
Based on the above assumptions we can now look at different upgrade pathways and see which options make the most sense. This thought process is a place to start and can be adjusted to each person's individual case.
Stablecoin (Fiat) to MCO pathway
At today's price of ~$4.85 USD at time of writing, it would cost $21,825 USD to upgrade directly into the 5000 tier by buying 4500 additional MCO. This gives additional benefits of 2% in earn, 1% on card, and 8% vs 6% on staked MCO. The variables we need to look at to find out if this makes sense over the next year are: assets in Earn and annual card spend. The opportunity cost of putting the money into MCO is a 4% yield on $21,825 (12% in Earn minus 8% staked in MCO) minus a 2% yield on 500 MCO, or roughly $824.50. We also open ourselves up to exchange rate volatility, there is a very real, non-0% chance that the crypto market collapses, or that MCO itself collapses in value. There is also a chance it will go way up. If you are looking to hold the MCO, or crypto in general, for longer periods of time, we need to sort of normalize the projected trend to figure out ROI. That means ignoring big jumps and drops, or retroactively thinking you could have made or lost money by trading in and out… that falls under trading and speculation. In general, most of us think the crypto market is going up, but by how much and how fast are variables that need to be considered in how exposed to crypto you want to be In order to make this pathway a positive ROI, we need to make an additional $824.50 through the added benefits in Earn and card spending over the course of one year. What does that look like?
Assets in Earn*0.02 + Card spend*0.01>824.50
Card spend: $1,000; Earn: $40,725
Card spend: $5,000; Earn: $38,725
Card spend: $10,000; Earn: $36,225
If you don't have roughly $35-40k in Earn, upgrading to 5000 Tier makes very little sense IMO. Full Account Examples (Assuming today's crypto prices):
Case 1 - 500 MCO staked; $100,000 Stablecoins in Earn; $100,000 Bitcoin in earn; $3000 card spend
500 * $4.85 * 0.06 = $145.50
$100,000 * 0.12 = $12,000
$100,000 * 0.055 = $5,500
$3,000 * 0.03 = $90
Total annual rewards: $17,735.50
Case 2 - 5000 MCO staked; $80,000 Stablecoins; $100,000 Bitcoin in Earn; $3000 card spend
5000 * $4.85 *0.08 = $1,940
$80,000 * 0.14 = $11,200
$100,000 * 0.075 = $7,500
$3,000 * 0.04 = $120
Total annual rewards: $20,760
Case 1 and 2 are very similar in total assets, but case 2 provides the better return after one year ($20,760 - $17,735.50 = $3,024.50) at the cost of being more exposed to crypto.
Bitcoin to MCO pathway via Drip
Another option to consider is upgrading to the 5000 tier via Bitcoin. I mention "Drip" in the header because I imagine most people able to do a lump sum conversion would encounter a taxable event and would be less inclined to go that route. Utilizing a drip format will upgrade on a longer time scale, but result in negligible taxable gain. It also keeps crypto exposure at roughly the same level throughout the process. The benefits from going to MCO from BTC is a higher interest rate for MCO being staked at 6% vs BTC in Earn at 5.5%; I also assume CDC will be able to keep the 6% on MCO longer than they can keep the rate high on BTC. The drawbacks are less liquidity on MCO, potentially more volatility, and potential loss of value relative to BTC in Satoshis (we'll ignore the last point since we are assuming a similar sat ratio over time). Another thing to mention, if we want to upgrade over the course of one year, BTC holdings need to be pretty sizable at $400,000 That's a little unreasonable for most people, so let's assume a smaller holding of $100,000 btc like the two cases above. This will take three years to accomplish and the equation gets a bit more complicated in this situation.
500 MCO staked at 6%
$100,000 BTC in Earn at 5.5%
Proceeds from both go immediately into MCO 3 Month Earn at 8%
Basically if you take the above situation and plug it into a compound interest calculator, compounding quarterly, it takes almost 3 years exactly to drip your way into the 5000 tier. We can mostly ignore any change in crypto USD value as long as the MCO/BTC ratio stays similar. If you definitely want to go to the 5000 tier, the question becomes purchase lump sum via Fiat or drip via crypto. The opportunity cost of dripping is the lost 2% gain in earn over the course of 3 years (which as you'll see below, could be significant if the market jumps quickly at which point purchasing via Fiat becomes prohibitively expensive). But the benefit is that you maintain your current crypto exposure in the case of a major bear market where you could potentially purchase via Fiat at a much lower price.
I think it's important to think about an exit strategy. In my opinion, upgrading to the 5000 tier only really makes sense if you are having a lot of assets in Earn. The added 1% on card spend and other perks pales in comparison to the added 2% on Earn with a large amount of assets. It's also my opinion that MCO should only be a small portion of a crypto portfolio. Regardless, if MCO is your main holding you are betting on the crypto market going up, because the added 5000 tier benefits won't comparatively amount to much over a year anyway. If crypto prices stay the same the benefits to holding MCO stay flat, but as crypto prices rise, the incentives change. Imagine we go on a huge bull run and the market goes up 20x. I bet a lot of people will want to rebalance and cash in some of that profit. It's quite possible holding 5000 MCO becomes too big of a risk for the benefits received. What's nice is that CDC seems to have thought about the optimal profile for people to get to the 5000 tier level...like I stated above, people with significant assets in Earn. Imagine the person in Case 2 above in an environment where the crypto market shoots up 20x.
5000 MCO = $500,000
$80,000 Stablecoins = $80,000
$100,000 BTC = $2,000,000
In this situation, it makes sense to rebalance your portfolio and take some earnings off the table. However, it actually makes a lot of sense to keep the 5000 MCO staked and rebalance away from BTC into Stablecoins. Look at the yearly earnings of different options below:
Leave as is: $191,200
Rebalance $450,000 from BTC to Stablecoins maintaining 5000 MCO tier: $220,450
Rebalance $450,000 away from MCO to Stablecoins dropping to the 500 MCO tier: $176,600
As you can see, losing the bonus 2% in earn cuts your profit over the course of a year. CDC was quite thoughtful in changing the award structure for the added 2% in Earn. It should keep early adopters from leaving if the market goes up, and should actually attract newly minted crypto whales as they rebalance out of other cryptos. This should keep the MCO price strong for a long time and give confidence to people investing in MCO.
I think upgrading to the 5000 tier can make a lot of sense for certain people. But after reaching the 5000 tier I would probably immediately cash out all rewarded MCO to Stablecoins to compound at a higher interest rate and just maintain the 5000 level. Unless there are some dramatic new rewards for the 50,000 level I don't see the value proposition to go for Black. Perhaps an additional 2% in Earn, but that is probably not sustainable to the company. Let me know what you think, or if I made any mistakes. Edit: Changed numbers to reflect 8% earned on staked MCO at the 5000 Tier level. This makes the upgrade more compelling.
Dash Competitive Basket index for Thursday, 11 June, 2020. Ok, finally getting into healthy win rates on the CBI (7 day data) and the 24 hour data also looks excellent.
All this modest and steady improvement in the Competitive Basket Data (7 day data) has finally put Dash back into healthy territory. And the 24 hour data was very good yesterday and even better today. Dollar value flirting with $80 again which has been heavy resistance. The 30 day moving average have a ways to go before they hit the healthy 50% win rate, so we still have our work cut out for us.
Dash outperformed 13 of the 20 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (65% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 39%
Dash outperformed 5 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (50% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 29%.
In total, Dash outperformed 18 of the top 30 cryptos (60% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 36%.
Bitcoin dominance dropped another 10th to 64.1%
10 of the top 30 cryptos beat Bitcoin (33%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 15 of the top 31 cryptos (48%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 10 of the top 31 (32%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 24 of the top 30 cryptos (80%).
Dash Competitive basket index for Sunday, 31 May, 2020. Yesterday was good, today was better. Gained a couple ranks too.
Yesterday, Dash showed some signs of life, but really needed follow through to accomplish anything. The 24 hour data for Dash looked outstanding today. We jumped up a couple ranks, which feels good. Dollar value is very solid, tickling $80. Of course, we still need a trainload of follow through, but we get there one day at a time.
Dash outperformed 9 of the 20 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (45% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 29%
Dash outperformed 1 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (10% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 23%.
In total, Dash outperformed 10 of the top 30 cryptos (33% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 27%.
Bitcoin dominance slid down another 1/10th to 64.3%
25 of the top 30 cryptos beat Bitcoin (83%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 30 of the top 31 cryptos (97%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 26 of the top 31 (84%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 21 of the top 30 cryptos (70%).
r/MAINSTREETCRYPTO EXCLUSIVE: INTERVIEW WITH ROGER VER
MAINSTREETCRYPTOEXCLUSIVE: INTERVIEW WITH ROGER VER https://preview.redd.it/9rycme1mdgr41.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30c55fb3ff8b3705726a04109797063a26798798 Roger Ver, is one of the five founders of the bitcoin foundation. You could say he was ahead of his time, buying $25,000 worth of bitcoin when they were merely $1 each. He was the first major investor to invest millions in Blockchain.info, Ripple, Kraken, and Bitpay among others. Now he wants Bitcoin Cash, a fork of the legacy chain, to be used as a global P2P currency, and says it can scale just like Satoshi first laid out in the original Bitcoin whitepaper.--------------------------------------------------------------Bitcoincash.orgRank: #5Current Price: $257.65Market Cap : $4,741,042,75924 hour trading volume : 1.741 Billion USD--------------------------------------------------------------Hi Roger, first and foremost, I wanted to thank you for taking the time to do this. You are truly a pioneer in the Bitcoin space, and all of us owe you a debt of gratitude. On behalf of all of us, I wanted to say thank you for advancing the space. 1. First, I want you to take a moment and appreciate how far bitcoin and cryptocurrency has come this past decade. Did you ever believe you would see such growth, interest, and adoption in such a short period of time or has it completely surprised you? We always over estimate the amount of progress that will be made in the short term, but underestimate the amount of progress that will be made in the long term. Crypto currency is another example of that. 2. At what point did it hit you that bitcoin was history in the making? From the very first day I knew it was one of the most important inventions in the history of humankind. The book Digital Gold goes over how I literally had to go to the emergency room because of the excitement I had for Bitcoin. 3. How did you first get into bitcoin, pre Bitinstant? I first heard about it on the FreeTalkLive.com radio show. A full history of the early years is covered well by Digital Gold. 4 .What economists and philosophers do you align with? I think Murray Rothbard fits into both categories and his thinking influenced mine more than any other single author. Others who have influenced me would include: Adam Smith Ludwig von Mises Milton Friedman David Friedman John Locke Henry Hazlitt Frederick Bastiat Larked Rose Ray Kurzweil 6. What has been your favorite moment in crypto history thus far? My favorite moments were reading the underlying philosophy behind the Silk Road. The government has done an amazing job distorting and smearing the underlying message behind the site. My eyes started to tear up when I read this post on the front page of the Silk Road for the fist time: https://www.reddit.com/Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/29diyt/defcons_latest_post_on_silk_road/?sort=top I never bought or sold a single thing there, but I spent countless enjoyable hours reading their forums and exploring the site. 7. What are your future plans for Bitcoin Cash? It isn’t just a hobby, it’s a global revolt. We will become money for the world. 8. Branding is so important. Bitcoin currently has greater brand recognition a la Coca-Cola, and is regarded by many as the “real” Bitcoin, even though this is widely disputed, especially by crypto-fundamentalists. Do you envision a Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi type scenario? Do you envision parity price-wise between the two on a long enough timeline? Bitcoin Cash has more utility than BTC, so in the long run it will have a larger market cap. Currently we are in the era when Myspace was bigger than Facebook, but Myspace’s servers were being over loaded and causing a bad user experience. Eventually people migrated to Facebook and eventually people will migrate away from BTC. 8. a) Have you ever thought of re-branding Bitcoin Cash? No one is in control to do such a thing by themselves. The community can’t even agree on orange vs green for the colors. 9. Bitcoin Cash has the potential to truly be used as a global form of payment rather than merely a store of value, what else excites you the most about the potential of Bitcoin Cash?
Payments for the world. That’s all we need. 10. I asked Adam Back the same question: If you could remove yourself from the equation, and remove bias, how would you objectively evaluate the pros and cons of Bitcoin Cash versus The Lightning Network? Anyone can permissionlessly start using BCH to start sending or receiving payments world wide in about 30 seconds. (The time it takes to download an app) It is accepted by more than 100,000 websites around the world, and has millions of users. Lightning Network would take about a full day to setup and get working permissionlessly, and would take several hundred dollars of additional computer hardware. Once it is setup, you can spend it at about 300 websites world wide, and it has maybe a few tens of thousands of users. 11. When you’re not working, what do you like to do for fun? Favorite hobbies? I enjoy reading, and Brazilian Jujitsu. I’m especially interested in doing more competitions before I get too old. 12. What are a few of your favorite books? What are some that have made a long lasting impact on you? (Can be fiction or nonfiction) I loved the Age of Spiritual Machines. It painted a picture of how exciting the world is going to be thanks to More’s Law. I also loved The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. I see crypto currency being a world life parallel. 13. What are you most excited about for the future of blockchain technology and where do you see the space in 5 years? I’m excited to see wide spread wallets with strong privacy, and more agorism starting to take place around the world. 14. What are your personal theories of who Satoshi was / were, what was their motivation, and do you think something like bitcoin would have inevitably been created eventually, had Satoshi never existed? I don’t know who Satoshi is or was, but it was clear they were trying to build a peer to peer electronic cash system, not what BTC has become today. It was an inevitability that someone would create something like Bitcoin eventually. People like David Friedman and others had been writing about it for decades in advance. 15. What advice would you give our viewers regarding blockchain, business, motivation, or life in general? Read more books. Reading a book like having a one on one tutoring session from the author. It’s the best way to learn directly from the greatest minds the human race has ever produced. BONUS: If you were a director and could make only one film out of all the wild stories regarding crypto, what subject matter would you choose and why? The Silk Road because it embodied the spirit of peer to peer cash and voluntaryism.
Dash competitive basket index for Wednesday, 3 June, 2020. Dash looked pretty soggy today.
The 7 day data for Dash looked pretty soggy today. There was some profit taking in alts, and they (pretty much all) dropped in price on the 24 data. Dollar value for Dash still solid so we can pay our dev team, so that’s something.
Dash outperformed 5 of the 20 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (25% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 32%
Dash outperformed 1 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (10% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 24%.
In total, Dash outperformed 6 of the top 30 cryptos (20% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 30%.
Bitcoin dominance dropped 4/10ths to 64.4%
21 of the top 30 cryptos beat Bitcoin (70%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 28 of the top 31 cryptos (90%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 3 of the top 31 (10%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 12 of the top 30 cryptos (40%).
Dash Competitive basket index for Friday, 5 June, 2020. Better.
Competitive basket index for Dash improved to almost healthy levels (7 day time frame). On the 24 hour time frame, Dash had outstanding numbers. The dollar value still solid. Alts cooled off substantially on the 24 hour data, as predicted. Tomorrow or Sunday they should bounce up again. 7 day time frame still looking good for alts.
Dash outperformed 11 of the 21 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (52% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 35%
Dash outperformed 2 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (20% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 25%.
In total, Dash outperformed 13 of the top 31 cryptos (42% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 32%.
Bitcoin dominance remained unchanged at 64.2%
23 of the top 31 cryptos beat Bitcoin (74%) on the 7 day data.
On the 7 day time frame, 28 of the top 32 cryptos (88%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 16 of the top 32 (50%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 25 of the top 31 cryptos (81%).
Dash Competitive Basket Index for Wednesday, 22 April, 2020. Dash is back on the rampage. Gained a rank back.
Dash is back on the rampage. Both 7 day and 24 hour time frames look excellent today. And we gained a rank back. Dollar value broke $80 which has been heavy resistance. We’ll see if it sticks. The Alt sector is back on fire again.
Dash outperformed 14 of the 18 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (78% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 49%
Dash outperformed 8 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (80% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 60%.
In total, Dash outperformed 22 of the top 28 cryptos (79% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 53%.
Bitcoin dominance dropped 2/10’s to 62.6%
13 of the top 28 cryptos beat Bitcoin (46%).
On the 7 day time frame, 27 of the top 29 cryptos (93%) were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, 27 of the top 29 (93%) cryptos were in the green.
On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 26 of the top 28 cryptos (93%).
Conversely, bitcoin started in 2009 and has steadily increased in value over time. 1 bitcoin equals $7,990.74 united states dollars at the time of this writing. While past performance is not indicative of future performance, history shows that bitcoin can serve as a long-term store of value. The page provides the exchange rate of 1 Bitcoin (BTC) to US Dollar (USD), sale and conversion rate. Moreover, we added the list of the most popular conversions for visualization and the history table with exchange rate diagram for 1 Bitcoin (BTC) to US Dollar (USD) from Monday, 20/07/2020 till Monday, 13/07/2020. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors have cheered U.S. plans to create a so-called digital dollar as part of a massive coronavirus-induced stimulus bill... Plot Bitcoin's value against the US Dollar with our Bitcoin real-time price chart, or look-up Bitcoin's historical exchange rate since 2011. Trade BTC USD in minutes and without commission with one of the following brokers: #1. Both the dollar and Bitcoin have a value that can be transferred from one party to another. But the similarities end there. Just because our mindset is so ingrained to value everything around us in ‘dollars,’ the value of Bitcoin is most often compared to the world’s reserve currency.
BTC/USD Bitcoin vs US Dollar price prediction, technical analysis, 2 scenarios!
Sam Bankman-Fried and Joe DiPasquale discuss Bitcoin's latest price movements, its potential to be a better store of value than the USD, and more. Bitcoin vs US Dollar technical analysis and price prediction 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 bull run scenario / bitcoin bearish scenario, news trading ... USD vs Bitcoin Satoshi Value Clearly Explained 🎓 Join Crypto Academy: https://goo.gl/uLvyWn 👕 Crypto Merchandise: http://shrsl.com/nf7o 🎓 Crypto Trading Cour... The daily adjusted USD transaction value for the top proof of work coins. Please note that this does not include some privacy coins such as Monero and Grin because of the design of their ... The topic of today being the value of Bitcoin versus the dollar. Now, just so many of us out there, we are so used to just measuring the value of everything in dollars because, well that's what ...